Lia Collective
Lia Collective

Future scenarios for Kasern
Prettau - Predoi, IT

Kasern, the northernmost settlement in Italy, lies at the end of the Ahrntal valley, directly on the Alpine main ridge. With fewer than 50 inhabitants, the village exemplifies a development affecting many mountain communities across Europe: the gradual loss of economic independence, a growing dependence on tourism, and the fundamental question of whether such places can remain truly viable in the long term. This study approaches that question not with a ready-made answer, but with a method: scenario-based thinking. Drawing on an analysis of the territory, its history and its present-day reality, two possible futures for Kasern have been developed and explored. The first scenario describes a village that consciously diversifies: with new residents choosing to make Kasern their permanent home, a strengthened community, and broad investment in housing, agriculture and economic variety well beyond tourism. The second scenario takes a different path: a deliberate, managed contraction, in which investment in Kasern becomes more selective and the strategic focus shifts to the main village of Prettau. In this vision, Kasern is repositioned as a place of agriculture, nature conservation and applied research, an outpost for institutions and young people who come here, for weeks or months at a time, to think about and discuss the future of mountain regions in a changing climate. Neither scenario is a prediction. Both are invitations to reflect: What is possible? What is desirable? And what does it take for what is desirable to actually become reality?

Client
Municipality of Prettau - Predoi

Location
Prettau - Predoi, IT

Year
2026

Lia Collective

the northernmost village in Italy and the oldest in South Tyrol

Data visualization

Population

Morphology

Tourism

Transportation

Agriculture

Past

On broader development trends

“Since the 1950s, we have had a negative migration balance. For a long time, there was a natural population surplus, but that is no longer the case today, and the population is declining.”

Present

On the local economy

“There are no shops left in the village and hardly anyone offering services anymore.”

Future?

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

On emerging approaches such as residencies, and similar initiatives

“We would be open to inviting groups that actively engage with the place. The more minds contribute to these topics and bring in different perspectives, the better.”

Scenario 1: From Passageway to Place

Scenario 2: From Village to Valley

Insight:
Kasern realized that most people come for the mountains, not for the village itself. If the village is to survive, it must give people a reason to stay.

Decision:
Instead of building new hotels or tourist facilities, Kasern invested in spaces that invite people to pause, experience, and engage. By prioritizing everyday life, these spaces create added value for both residents and visitors. As a result of this added value, visitors now stay longer in the village, and occupancy rates in existing hotels have increased.

Insight:
The village had to acknowledge a decline in tourism, and no measure could reverse this trend quickly enough. Rather than resisting it, Kasern chose to see it as an opportunity. The relationship with and traditional care of the cultural landscape— which had played only a secondary role compared to tourism in recent decades—was now brought back into focus.

Decision:
Kasern adopted a different strategy: not growth, but a deliberate reorientation. The village accepted that it could no longer continue as an independent, expanding community in its previous form, and instead became a living laboratory. Here, the interaction between cultural landscape and nature, the effects of climate change, and the future of alpine valley systems can be observed, tested, and researched.

Lia Collective
Lia Collective

Kasern 2050:

Today, visitors walk through the village on their way to the mountains. They pick up a packed lunch at the local farm shop, stop for tea on their way back, or gather in the village square for an evening of music. The local economy now revolves around small services and community-based activities that strengthen local identity (cafés, markets, traditional events, etc.).

The local population is growing closer and becoming more resilient. Younger visitors choose to stay in Kasern.

Kasern 2050:

Today the village is smaller and quieter. The economy revolves around agriculture and applied research, particularly in response to new climatic challenges. In summer, Kasern hosts a summer school on landscape stewardship and the agriculture of the future.

The remaining residents act as stewards of the territory, maintaining and cultivating the landscape rather than expanding the settlement.

Future scenarios for Kasern
Prettau - Predoi, IT

Kasern, the northernmost settlement in Italy, lies at the end of the Ahrntal valley, directly on the Alpine main ridge. With fewer than 50 inhabitants, the village exemplifies a development affecting many mountain communities across Europe: the gradual loss of economic independence, a growing dependence on tourism, and the fundamental question of whether such places can remain truly viable in the long term. This study approaches that question not with a ready-made answer, but with a method: scenario-based thinking. Drawing on an analysis of the territory, its history and its present-day reality, two possible futures for Kasern have been developed and explored. The first scenario describes a village that consciously diversifies: with new residents choosing to make Kasern their permanent home, a strengthened community, and broad investment in housing, agriculture and economic variety well beyond tourism. The second scenario takes a different path: a deliberate, managed contraction, in which investment in Kasern becomes more selective and the strategic focus shifts to the main village of Prettau. In this vision, Kasern is repositioned as a place of agriculture, nature conservation and applied research, an outpost for institutions and young people who come here, for weeks or months at a time, to think about and discuss the future of mountain regions in a changing climate. Neither scenario is a prediction. Both are invitations to reflect: What is possible? What is desirable? And what does it take for what is desirable to actually become reality?

Client
Municipality of Prettau - Predoi

Location
Prettau - Predoi, IT

Year
2026

Lia Collective

the northernmost village in Italy and the oldest in South Tyrol

Data visualization

Population

Morphology

Tourism

Transportation

Agriculture

Past

On broader development trends

“Since the 1950s, we have had a negative migration balance. For a long time, there was a natural population surplus, but that is no longer the case today, and the population is declining.”

Present

On the local economy

“There are no shops left in the village and hardly anyone offering services anymore.”

Future?

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

On emerging approaches such as residencies, and similar initiatives

“We would be open to inviting groups that actively engage with the place. The more minds contribute to these topics and bring in different perspectives, the better.”

Scenario 1: From Passageway to Place

Insight:
Kasern realized that most people come for the mountains, not for the village itself. If the village is to survive, it must give people a reason to stay.

Decision:
Instead of building new hotels or tourist facilities, Kasern invested in spaces that invite people to pause, experience, and engage. By prioritizing everyday life, these spaces create added value for both residents and visitors. As a result of this added value, visitors now stay longer in the village, and occupancy rates in existing hotels have increased.

Lia Collective

Kasern 2050:

Today, visitors walk through the village on their way to the mountains. They pick up a packed lunch at the local farm shop, stop for tea on their way back, or gather in the village square for an evening of music. The local economy now revolves around small services and community-based activities that strengthen local identity (cafés, markets, traditional events, etc.).

The local population is growing closer and becoming more resilient. Younger visitors choose to stay in Kasern.

Scenario 2: From Village to Valley

Insight:
The village had to acknowledge a decline in tourism, and no measure could reverse this trend quickly enough. Rather than resisting it, Kasern chose to see it as an opportunity. The relationship with and traditional care of the cultural landscape— which had played only a secondary role compared to tourism in recent decades—was now brought back into focus.

Decision:
Kasern adopted a different strategy: not growth, but a deliberate reorientation. The village accepted that it could no longer continue as an independent, expanding community in its previous form, and instead became a living laboratory. Here, the interaction between cultural landscape and nature, the effects of climate change, and the future of alpine valley systems can be observed, tested, and researched.

Lia Collective

Kasern 2050:

Today the village is smaller and quieter. The economy revolves around agriculture and applied research, particularly in response to new climatic challenges. In summer, Kasern hosts a summer school on landscape stewardship and the agriculture of the future.

The remaining residents act as stewards of the territory, maintaining and cultivating the landscape rather than expanding the settlement.

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